FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Millwall 4–0 Bolton WanderersMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Millwall or draw at 80%. Bawler had Millwall at 56%, the draw at 24% and Bolton Wanderers at 20%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Millwall win
56%
Result
Draw
24%
Bolton Wanderers win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Millwall or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Millwall's title pursuit at home collides with Bolton's lack of leverage, and the xG gap of 0.92 supports the model's 81% forecast for Millwall or draw."