Millwall vs Bolton Wanderers prediction — Championship · Sat 5 Sept · 15:00 UK

Championship · Sat 5 Sept · 15:00 UK
Millwall 56Draw 24Bolton Wanderers 20
Our call before kickoff
80%
Millwall or draw
Landed
2.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 4–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
79%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
54%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
55%

How it finished

Millwall beat Bolton Wanderers 4–0. Bawler's model had Millwall in front at 56% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Millwall had 12 shots (5 on target) to Bolton Wanderers' 13 (4), with 39% of the ball against 61%. Expected goals finished 2.6 to 1.0.

MillwallFull-time statsBolton…
39%Possession61%
2.6Expected goals (xG)1.0
12Shots13
5Shots on target4
11Shots inside box11
6Big chances1
3Corners9
4Saves1
13Fouls14
8Offsides0
0Yellow cards1
1Red cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callMillwall or draw 80%Millwall won (56% called)
Total goals2.94
Both teams to score54%No
Second pickOver 2.5 goals 55%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

MillwallBolton Wanderers
1.8
Goals+0.8
1.0
17.8
Shots+5.3
12.5
4.7
On target+0.5
5.2
7.7
Corners+0.4
7.3
MillwallBolton Wanderers
0.6
Goals+0.1
0.5
8.2
Shots+2.7
5.5
2.3
On target+0.1
2.3
3.6
Corners+0.2
3.4
MillwallBolton Wanderers
1.3
Goals+0.8
0.5
9.5
Shots+2.6
7.0
2.5
On target+0.4
2.9
4.1
Corners+0.2
3.9

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Millwall to score84%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Under 3.5 goals68%
Bolton Wanderers to score64%

First half — what we expected

Millwall
58%
to score before half-time
Bolton Wanderers
51%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%

MillwallBolton Wanderers
8.21st-half shots5.5
2.31st-half shots on target2.3
3.61st-half corners3.4

First-half chances

66%Chance of 7+ shots33%
43%Chance of 9+ shots15%
86%Chance of 1+ shots on target87%
38%Chance of 3+ shots on target40%
65%Chance of 3+ corners62%
31%Chance of 5+ corners27%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Millwall8.29.5
Shots · Bolton Wanderers5.57.0
Shots on target · Millwall2.32.5
Shots on target · Bolton Wanderers2.32.9
Corners · Millwall3.64.1
Corners · Bolton Wanderers3.43.9
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.8 / match
Bolton Wanderers in their league tableLower half
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Millwall vs Bolton Wanderers?

Millwall beat Bolton Wanderers 4–0. Bawler's model had Millwall in front at 56% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Millwall had 12 shots (5 on target) to Bolton Wanderers' 13 (4), with 39% of the ball against 61%. Expected goals finished 2.6 to 1.0.

What was the final score in Millwall vs Bolton Wanderers?

Millwall 4–0 Bolton Wanderers, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Millwall 56%, the draw 24% and Bolton Wanderers 20%.

What were the stats in Millwall vs Bolton Wanderers?

Full-time: Possession 39%–61%, Expected goals (xG) 2.6–1.0, Shots 12–13, Shots on target 5–4, Shots inside box 11–11, Big chances 6–1, Corners 3–9, Saves 4–1, Fouls 13–14, Offsides 8–0, Yellow cards 0–1, Red cards 1–1.

Did both teams score in Millwall vs Bolton Wanderers?

No. It finished 4–0, so Bolton Wanderers failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Millwall vs Bolton Wanderers right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Millwall or draw 80%, it finished Millwall won (56% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished No; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 55%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

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