FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Millwall 0–1 Newcastle UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Newcastle United or draw at 79%. Bawler had Millwall at 21%, the draw at 23% and Newcastle United at 56%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Millwall win
21%
Draw
23%
Newcastle United win
56%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.9
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Newcastle's superior shot quality—a 0.81 xG advantage and 56% win probability—makes Over 1.5 Goals (81% forecast) the model's call, with Anthony Gordon and Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura driving an expected 1.94 xG output."