FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Minnesota United FC 1–2 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Minnesota United FC or draw at 77%. Bawler had Minnesota United FC at 52%, the draw at 25% and Atlanta United FC at 23%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Minnesota United FC win
52%
Draw
25%
Atlanta United FC win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.