FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Minnesota United FC 2–3 LA GalaxyMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Minnesota United FC or draw at 76%. Bawler had Minnesota United FC at 53%, the draw at 23% and LA Galaxy at 24%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Minnesota United FC win
53%
Draw
23%
LA Galaxy win
24%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.3
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Minnesota United FC to win
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 81%, driven by Minnesota United's 0.63 xG advantage and Riqui Puig's creative role in a Galaxy attack that will need to generate chances."