How it finished
LA Galaxy beat Minnesota United FC 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Minnesota United FC at 53% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave LA Galaxy 24%. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 5. Minnesota United FC had 15 shots (5 on target) to LA Galaxy's 16 (5), with 44% of the ball against 56%. On expected goals it was 1.9 to 1.6, so Minnesota United FC created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Minnesota United FC vs LA Galaxy?
LA Galaxy beat Minnesota United FC 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Minnesota United FC at 53% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave LA Galaxy 24%. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 5. Minnesota United FC had 15 shots (5 on target) to LA Galaxy's 16 (5), with 44% of the ball against 56%. On expected goals it was 1.9 to 1.6, so Minnesota United FC created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Minnesota United FC vs LA Galaxy?
Minnesota United FC 2–3 LA Galaxy, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Minnesota United FC 53%, the draw 23% and LA Galaxy 24%.
What were the stats in Minnesota United FC vs LA Galaxy?
Full-time: Possession 44%–56%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–1.6, Shots 15–16, Shots on target 5–5, Shots inside box 10–12, Big chances 2–4, Corners 5–8, Saves 2–3, Fouls 14–8, Offsides 1–2, Yellow cards 1–1.
Did both teams score in Minnesota United FC vs LA Galaxy?
Yes — both Minnesota United FC and LA Galaxy scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Minnesota United FC vs LA Galaxy right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Minnesota United FC or draw 76%, it finished LA Galaxy won (24% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 63%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 85%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Minnesota United FC to win 53%, it finished Missed.