FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Minnesota United FC 3–3 Orlando City SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Minnesota United FC or draw at 73%. Bawler had Minnesota United FC at 50%, the draw at 24% and Orlando City SC at 27%. The match finished 3–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Minnesota United FC win
50%
Draw
24%
Result
Orlando City SC win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.4
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.6 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Minnesota United FC or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 84% because Minnesota's 1.91 xG significantly outpaces Orlando's 1.36, generating enough attacking volume for a multi-goal outcome."