How it finished
Minnesota United FC and Orlando City SC drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Minnesota United FC at 50% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 6. Minnesota United FC had 21 shots (9 on target) to Orlando City SC's 6 (5), with 44% of the ball against 56%. Expected goals finished 3.6 to 1.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 70%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC?
Minnesota United FC and Orlando City SC drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Minnesota United FC at 50% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 24%. It forecast 3.3 goals; the match produced 6. Minnesota United FC had 21 shots (9 on target) to Orlando City SC's 6 (5), with 44% of the ball against 56%. Expected goals finished 3.6 to 1.1.
What was the final score in Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC?
Minnesota United FC 3–3 Orlando City SC, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Minnesota United FC 50%, the draw 24% and Orlando City SC 27%.
What were the stats in Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC?
Full-time: Possession 44%–56%, Expected goals (xG) 3.6–1.1, Shots 21–6, Shots on target 9–5, Shots inside box 20–4, Big chances 4–2, Corners 8–1, Saves 2–6, Fouls 13–10, Offsides 4–1, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC?
Yes — both Minnesota United FC and Orlando City SC scored, finishing 3–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 63% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Minnesota United FC vs Orlando City SC right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Minnesota United FC or draw 73%, it finished Draw (24% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 6; Both teams to score — we said 63%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 84%, it finished Landed.