FT · Italy: Serie A · Friday, 18 September 2026
Monza 2–1 SassuoloMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 18 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Monza or draw at 72%. Bawler had Monza at 45%, the draw at 27% and Sassuolo at 28%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Monza win
45%
Result
Draw
27%
Sassuolo win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals stands at 75% because Monza's 1.51 expected goals—a 0.35 edge over Sassuolo—suggests both sides will find the net in a low-block encounter."