FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Moreirense 0–4 BenficaMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Benfica to win at 69%. Bawler had Moreirense at 11%, the draw at 20% and Benfica at 69%. The match finished 0–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Moreirense win
11%
Draw
20%
Benfica win
69%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.8 – 2.2
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 3.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Benfica to win
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Benfica's away win stands at 69% probability, anchored by a 1.40 xG advantage that reflects their superior attacking threat led by striker Pavlidis."