FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Monday, 14 September 2026
Moreirense 3–1 MaritimoMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 14 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Moreirense or draw at 65%. Bawler had Moreirense at 37%, the draw at 28% and Maritimo at 35%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Moreirense win
37%
Result
Draw
28%
Maritimo win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries a 74% forecast because both sides project nearly identical attacking threat at 1.33 and 1.29 xG respectively, keeping this fixture wide open."