How it finished
Moreirense beat Maritimo 3–1. Bawler's model had Moreirense in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.6 goals; the match produced 4. Moreirense had 11 shots (5 on target) to Maritimo's 9 (2), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 0.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 57%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Moreirense beat Maritimo 3–1. Bawler's model had Moreirense in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.6 goals; the match produced 4. Moreirense had 11 shots (5 on target) to Maritimo's 9 (2), with 38% of the ball against 62%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 0.8.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Moreirense 3–1 Maritimo, played on 14 Sept 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Moreirense 37%, the draw 28% and Maritimo 35%.
What were the stats in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Full-time: Possession 38%–62%, Expected goals (xG) 2.0–0.8, Shots 11–9, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 7–6, Big chances 4–1, Corners 3–5, Saves 1–1, Fouls 14–16, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in Moreirense vs Maritimo?
Yes — both Moreirense and Maritimo scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Moreirense vs Maritimo right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Moreirense or draw 65%, it finished Moreirense won (37% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 53%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 74%, it finished Landed.