FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Motherwell 1–3 SC FreiburgMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was SC Freiburg or draw at 78%. Bawler had Motherwell at 22%, the draw at 26% and SC Freiburg at 52%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Motherwell win
22%
Draw
26%
SC Freiburg win
52%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.7
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
SC Freiburg or draw
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
SC Freiburg to win
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.