FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Napoli 0–1 ArsenalMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arsenal or draw at 83%. Bawler had Napoli at 17%, the draw at 24% and Arsenal at 59%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Napoli win
17%
Draw
24%
Arsenal win
59%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 1.8
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.2 – 4.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Arsenal or draw
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Arsenal's superior shot quality—generating 1.84 xG versus Napoli's 0.90—makes Arsenal or draw the high-confidence forecast at 83%, suggesting the visitors will either win or draw at the San Paolo."