FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Napoli 1–0 BolognaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Napoli or draw at 73%. Bawler had Napoli at 45%, the draw at 28% and Bologna at 27%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Napoli win
45%
Result
Draw
28%
Bologna win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.6 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Missed
Medium confidence
Napoli or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 72%, anchored by Napoli's 0.38 expected-goals edge and two creative wings—Kvaratskhelia (24% of Napoli's xG) and Orsolini (24% of Bologna's)—likely to generate chances in a low-scoring Serie A context."