FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Nashville SC 3–0 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Nashville SC or draw at 70%. Bawler had Nashville SC at 45%, the draw at 25% and Chicago Fire FC at 30%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nashville SC win
45%
Result
Draw
25%
Chicago Fire FC win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 81%, underpinned by Nashville's 0.39 xG advantage and Hany Mukhtar's creative force driving 26% of the team's shot quality."