FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Nashville SC 2–0 Toronto FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Nashville SC or draw at 82%. Bawler had Nashville SC at 58%, the draw at 24% and Toronto FC at 18%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nashville SC win
58%
Result
Draw
24%
Toronto FC win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 0.9
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Nashville SC or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Nashville's 0.89 expected-goals advantage and creator Hany Mukhtar's 26% share of team chances drive the Nashville SC or draw forecast to 82%, with the hosts' 1.83 xG rendering a draw or home win the model's high-confidence call."