FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Netherlands 1–1 GermanyMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Germany or draw at 63%. Bawler had Netherlands at 37%, the draw at 24% and Germany at 39%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Netherlands win
37%
Draw
24%
Result
Germany win
39%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.7
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.2 – 1.5
From the match itself

The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 86%, with both sides generating nearly identical expected goals (Netherlands 1.70, Germany 1.76) anchored by creator talents like Gakpo and Wirtz."

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