FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Netherlands 2–1 SerbiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Netherlands
2–1
Netherlands win
Serbia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Netherlands to win at 89%. Bawler had Netherlands at 89%, the draw at 9% and Serbia at 2%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Netherlands win
89%
Result
Draw
9%
Serbia win
2%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.2 – 0.4
Total 3.6
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 1.7
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 3.6.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Netherlands to win
Pre-match: 89%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Netherlands home win is the high-confidence call, backed by a 2.69 expected-goals advantage and 88% win probability that reflects Gakpo and Depay's attacking threat against Serbia's 0.46 xG."

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