FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
New York City FC 2–3 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was New York City FC or draw at 72%. Bawler had New York City FC at 42%, the draw at 30% and Philadelphia Union at 28%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
New York City FC win
42%
Draw
30%
Philadelphia Union win
28%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals forecasts as the high-confidence call at 77% because New York City FC's 1.62 xG advantage and Alonso Martínez's 24% offensive share suggest sufficient attacking thrust against Philadelphia Union's 1.29 xG output."