How it finished
Philadelphia Union beat New York City FC 3–2. Bawler's model favoured New York City FC at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Philadelphia Union 28%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. New York City FC had 16 shots (4 on target) to Philadelphia Union's 17 (5), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 2.3 to 2.4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
No first-half forecast for this fixture.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Philadelphia Union beat New York City FC 3–2. Bawler's model favoured New York City FC at 42% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Philadelphia Union 28%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. New York City FC had 16 shots (4 on target) to Philadelphia Union's 17 (5), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 2.3 to 2.4.
What was the final score in New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?
New York City FC 2–3 Philadelphia Union, played on 16 Aug 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with New York City FC 42%, the draw 30% and Philadelphia Union 28%.
What were the stats in New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 2.3–2.4, Shots 16–17, Shots on target 4–5, Shots inside box 10–8, Big chances 2–5, Corners 8–4, Saves 2–2, Fouls 15–21, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 3–4.
Did both teams score in New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Yes — both New York City FC and Philadelphia Union scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said New York City FC or draw 72%, it finished Philadelphia Union won (28% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Not both teams to score 53%, it finished Missed.