FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 19 September 2026
New York City FC 0–1 Red Bull New YorkMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was New York City FC or draw at 75%. Bawler had New York City FC at 52%, the draw at 24% and Red Bull New York at 25%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
New York City FC win
52%
Draw
24%
Red Bull New York win
25%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.3
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Missed
Medium confidence
New York City FC to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals forecasts as the model's safest call at 84% confidence, built on New York City FC's 0.74 xG advantage and Martínez's prolific 24% of team shot quality."