How it finished
Red Bull New York beat New York City FC 1–0. Bawler's model favoured New York City FC at 52% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Red Bull New York 25%. It forecast 3.2 goals; only 1 was scored. New York City FC had 16 shots (4 on target) to Red Bull New York's 10 (1), with 63% of the ball against 37%. On expected goals it was 2.4 to 1.4, so New York City FC created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 82%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won New York City FC vs Red Bull New York?
Red Bull New York beat New York City FC 1–0. Bawler's model favoured New York City FC at 52% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Red Bull New York 25%. It forecast 3.2 goals; only 1 was scored. New York City FC had 16 shots (4 on target) to Red Bull New York's 10 (1), with 63% of the ball against 37%. On expected goals it was 2.4 to 1.4, so New York City FC created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in New York City FC vs Red Bull New York?
New York City FC 0–1 Red Bull New York, played on 19 Sept 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with New York City FC 52%, the draw 24% and Red Bull New York 25%.
What were the stats in New York City FC vs Red Bull New York?
Full-time: Possession 63%–37%, Expected goals (xG) 2.4–1.4, Shots 16–10, Shots on target 4–1, Shots inside box 12–6, Big chances 3–3, Corners 6–7, Saves 0–4, Fouls 10–19, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 2–3.
Did both teams score in New York City FC vs Red Bull New York?
No. It finished 0–1, so New York City FC failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 61% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for New York City FC vs Red Bull New York right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said New York City FC or draw 75%, it finished Red Bull New York won (25% called); Total goals — we said 3.2, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 61%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 83%, it finished Missed; Second pick — we said New York City FC to win 52%, it finished Missed.