World: World CupSaturday 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC

New Zealand vBelgium

Most likely scoreline
02
11% of the time · 2.98 goals expected
New Zealand 12%Draw 24%Belgium 64%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
80%

Over 2.5 Goals is the play at 80% probability—Belgium's 2.13 xG plus New Zealand's 0.85 creates a combined 2.98 expected goals that rewards the higher total.

How we get there
New ZealandstepBelgium
0.85Base xG · rolling 26-match2.13
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.85Final goal estimate — what the model uses2.13
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
80%
Over 3.5 goals
30%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

New Zealand average 4.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Belgium average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
11
11
8
4
2
1
1
4
9
10
7
4
2
1
2
2
4
4
3
2
1
3
1
1
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Romelu Lukaku
Belgium · Napoli
48%
To assist
Kevin De Bruyne
Belgium · Napoli
44%
To score
Chris Wood
New Zealand · Nottingham Forest
40%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

New Zealand vs Belgium — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between New Zealand and Belgium — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: New Zealand 12% · draw 24% · Belgium 64%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
New Zealand 15 Belgium
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.