New Zealand vEgypt
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 74% because Egypt's 1.55 xG and Mohamed Salah's creative dominance (32% of team output) will stretch New Zealand's thin 1.09 xG defense into multiple scoring chances.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
New Zealand average 4.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Egypt average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
New Zealand vs Egypt — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between New Zealand and Egypt — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: New Zealand 24% · draw 31% · Egypt 45%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.