World: World CupMonday 22 Jun, 01:00 UTC

New Zealand vEgypt

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.64 goals expected
New Zealand 24%Draw 31%Egypt 45%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
74%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 74% because Egypt's 1.55 xG and Mohamed Salah's creative dominance (32% of team output) will stretch New Zealand's thin 1.09 xG defense into multiple scoring chances.

How we get there
New ZealandstepEgypt
1.09Base xG · rolling 26-match1.55
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.09Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.55
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Egypt or draw
64%
Over 3.5 goals
22%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

New Zealand average 4.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Egypt average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
11
9
4
2
1
1
8
12
9
5
2
1
2
4
7
5
3
1
3
2
2
2
1
4
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Mohamed Salah
Egypt · Liverpool
55%
To score
Omar Marmoush
Egypt · Man City
42%
To score
Chris Wood
New Zealand · Nottingham Forest
40%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

New Zealand vs Egypt — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between New Zealand and Egypt — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: New Zealand 24% · draw 31% · Egypt 45%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
New Zealand 13 Egypt
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.