FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Newcastle United 2–2 AFC BournemouthMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Newcastle United or draw at 67%. Bawler had Newcastle United at 42%, the draw at 24% and AFC Bournemouth at 33%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Newcastle United win
42%
Draw
24%
Result
AFC Bournemouth win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.5
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Newcastle's Anthony Gordon (22% of team xG) and Bournemouth's Francisco Evanilson (18% of team xG) lead balanced attacks separated by just 0.22 expected-goals, making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 83% high-confidence call."