FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Newcastle United 2–1 Hull CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Newcastle United to win at 72%. Bawler had Newcastle United at 72%, the draw at 17% and Hull City at 11%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Newcastle United win
72%
Result
Draw
17%
Hull City win
11%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 0.9
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Newcastle United to win
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Newcastle's dominant 2.01 xG advantage and 78% win forecast make a Home Win the model's clear call against a Hull side generating just 0.81 expected goals."