FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Nice 1–1 Le MansMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Nice or draw at 76%. Bawler had Nice at 51%, the draw at 25% and Le Mans at 24%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nice win
51%
Draw
25%
Result
Le Mans win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Nice to win
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Nice's superior shot quality (1.80 xG vs 1.18) and Evann Guessand's creative output should overwhelm Le Mans, making Over 1.5 Goals the model's 80% high-confidence forecast."