FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Norwich City 4–1 BurnleyMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Norwich City or draw at 64%. Bawler had Norwich City at 37%, the draw at 27% and Burnley at 36%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Norwich City win
37%
Result
Draw
27%
Burnley win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Norwich's season is dead with nothing to play for in fourth place while Burnley fights relegation from 19th, yet the model gives Burnley a 39% win probability and calls Burnley or draw at 66% because their xG of 1.45 slightly edges Norwich's 1.34 in a fixture projecting evenly."