FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Nottingham Forest 0–1 Coventry CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Nottingham Forest or draw at 80%. Bawler had Nottingham Forest at 56%, the draw at 24% and Coventry City at 20%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nottingham Forest win
56%
Draw
24%
Coventry City win
20%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.1
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Forest's attacking duo of Gibbs-White and Wood control nearly half their team's chances, and an 0.89 xG advantage makes Over 1.5 Goals (81% forecast) the model's clearest signal in a lopsided matchup."