FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Nottingham Forest 0–0 Tottenham HotspurMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Nottingham Forest or draw at 74%. Bawler had Nottingham Forest at 48%, the draw at 26% and Tottenham Hotspur at 26%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nottingham Forest win
48%
Draw
26%
Result
Tottenham Hotspur win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Nottingham Forest or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Tottenham's relegation fight leaves no margin for error against a settled Forest side generating 0.44 more expected goals, making the Nottingham Forest or draw forecast (73% confidence) the model's primary call."