FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026
OFI Crete 2–0 TSG HoffenheimMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was TSG Hoffenheim or draw at 64%. Bawler had OFI Crete at 36%, the draw at 27% and TSG Hoffenheim at 37%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
OFI Crete win
36%
Result
Draw
27%
TSG Hoffenheim win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
OFI Crete or draw
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"The OFI Crete or draw forecast edges to 63% as Hoffenheim's marginal 0.02 xG advantage dissolves into nearly identical attacking threat (1.44 vs 1.42), leaving Crete's home field viable insurance against an evenly matched Europa League clash."