FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 29 August 2026
OH Leuven 1–2 Standard LiegeMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was OH Leuven or draw at 63%. Bawler had OH Leuven at 37%, the draw at 26% and Standard Liege at 37%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
OH Leuven win
37%
Draw
26%
Standard Liege win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals arrives at 79% confidence because both sides generate nearly identical attacking threat—Leuven 1.47 xG, Liège 1.45—suggesting a low-scoring fixture will edge toward multiple goals."