FT · Europe: Europa League · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Omonia Nicosia 1–0 Celta VigoMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Celta Vigo or draw at 70%. Bawler had Omonia Nicosia at 30%, the draw at 27% and Celta Vigo at 42%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Omonia Nicosia win
30%
Result
Draw
27%
Celta Vigo win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.5
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals forecasts at 74% confidence because combined expected goals of 2.65 and Celta's attacking edge (1.46 xG) suggest a low-scoring but open contest."