FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Orlando City SC 1–1 FC CincinnatiMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Orlando City SC or draw at 65%. Bawler had Orlando City SC at 39%, the draw at 26% and FC Cincinnati at 35%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Orlando City SC win
39%
Draw
26%
Result
FC Cincinnati win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.8
Total 3.7
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Orlando City SC or draw
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.