FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Orlando City SC 1–0 San Diego FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Orlando City SC or draw at 65%. Bawler had Orlando City SC at 42%, the draw at 23% and San Diego FC at 35%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Orlando City SC win
42%
Result
Draw
23%
San Diego FC win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.7
Total 3.5
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 87% because Orlando's 1.84 xG and San Diego's 1.69 xG combine for a 3.53-goal forecast, with Luis Muriel's striker role accounting for nearly a quarter of the home team's shot quality."