FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Orlando City SC 3–0 Toronto FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Orlando City SC or draw at 77%. Bawler had Orlando City SC at 53%, the draw at 24% and Toronto FC at 23%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Orlando City SC win
53%
Result
Draw
24%
Toronto FC win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 2.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Orlando City SC to win
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Orlando's 0.70 xG advantage and Luis Muriel's proven attacking threat drive the model's 80% confidence in Over 1.5 Goals, with a combined 3.02 expected goals signaling a high-scoring forecast."