FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Palestine 2–2 New ZealandMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Palestine or draw at 65%. Bawler had Palestine at 38%, the draw at 27% and New Zealand at 35%. The match finished 2–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Palestine win
38%
Draw
27%
Result
New Zealand win
35%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% because Palestine's 1.42 xG and New Zealand's 1.36 xG combine for balanced attacking threat, with Chris Wood accounting for nearly a quarter of the visitors' expected output."

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