World: World CupTuesday 23 Jun, 23:00 UTC

Panama vCroatia

Most likely scoreline
01
13% of the time · 2.72 goals expected
Panama 13%Draw 26%Croatia 61%
Strongest call
Over 2.5 goals
72%

Over 2.5 Goals at 72% probability looks strong because Croatia's 1.93 xG—nearly 2.5 times Panama's 0.79—suggests the visitors will dominate a low-possession affair.

How we get there
PanamastepCroatia
0.79Base xG · rolling 26-match1.93
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.79Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.93
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
72%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Panama average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Croatia average 3.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
13
12
8
4
1
1
5
10
10
6
3
1
2
2
4
4
2
1
3
1
1
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Panama vs Croatia — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Panama and Croatia — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Panama 13% · draw 26% · Croatia 61%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Panama 01 Croatia
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.