FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Paris FC 0–0 LyonMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lyon or draw at 66%. Bawler had Paris FC at 34%, the draw at 26% and Lyon at 40%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Paris FC win
34%
Draw
26%
Result
Lyon win
40%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 3.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 79%, grounded in a combined 2.96 xG and Lyon's Alexandre Lacazette accounting for over a quarter of his team's attacking threat."