FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Paris FC 3–0 NiceMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Paris FC or draw at 74%. Bawler had Paris FC at 49%, the draw at 25% and Nice at 26%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Paris FC win
49%
Result
Draw
25%
Nice win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Paris FC or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.