FT · France: Ligue 1 · Friday, 04 September 2026
Paris Saint-Germain 1–2 AS MonacoMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 04 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Paris Saint-Germain to win at 67%. Bawler had Paris Saint-Germain at 67%, the draw at 19% and AS Monaco at 14%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Paris Saint-Germain win
67%
Draw
19%
AS Monaco win
14%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 1.0
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Pre-match: 67%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"PSG defends a four-point title lead at home against a Monaco side chasing European qualification, and the 2.49 xG advantage makes a Paris win the model's 68% call."