FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Parma 1–1 MonzaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Monza or draw at 66%. Bawler had Parma at 34%, the draw at 29% and Monza at 37%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Parma win
34%
Draw
29%
Result
Monza win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.2
Total 2.4
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Monza or draw
Pre-match: 66%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Parma sits without live stakes while Monza enters seeking points, yet the model's tight expected-goals gap (Parma 1.16, Monza 1.23) and 37% win probability for the visitors support the high-confidence Monza or draw call at 66%."