FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Philadelphia Union 2–0 CF MontréalMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Philadelphia Union to win at 60%. Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 60%, the draw at 22% and CF Montréal at 18%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Philadelphia Union win
60%
Result
Draw
22%
CF Montréal win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.1
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 83%, backed by Philadelphia Union's dominant 2.09 xG advantage and a near-99 shot quality gap that striker Tai Baribo (26% of team chances) is positioned to exploit."