FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Portland Timbers 5–4 Minnesota United FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Portland Timbers or draw at 67%. Bawler had Portland Timbers at 41%, the draw at 26% and Minnesota United FC at 33%. The match finished 5–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Portland Timbers win
41%
Result
Draw
26%
Minnesota United FC win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
5 – 4
Total 9 (+6.0 against our forecast)
The match produced 6.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% as Portland's 1.56 xG and Minnesota's 1.40 xG combine for a low-variance, goal-heavy fixture."