FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Portland Timbers 2–2 St. Louis CITY SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Portland Timbers or draw at 64%. Bawler had Portland Timbers at 39%, the draw at 25% and St. Louis CITY SC at 36%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Portland Timbers win
39%
Draw
25%
Result
St. Louis CITY SC win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Portland's slight offensive edge (1.57 xG) combined with tight defensive matchup generates an 81% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, making goal-heavy play the model's highest-conviction call."