FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Portsmouth 2–2 Blackburn RoversMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Portsmouth or draw at 70%. Bawler had Portsmouth at 42%, the draw at 28% and Blackburn Rovers at 30%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Portsmouth win
42%
Draw
28%
Result
Blackburn Rovers win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.1
Total 2.5
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 70% because both sides generate comparable attacking threat—Portsmouth's 1.33 xG and Blackburn's 1.12 xG suggest a low-scoring but open contest."