FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Portsmouth 2–0 Cardiff CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Portsmouth or draw at 73%. Bawler had Portsmouth at 46%, the draw at 27% and Cardiff City at 27%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Portsmouth win
46%
Result
Draw
27%
Cardiff City win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Portsmouth or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Portsmouth's desperate fight to escape the drop gives them edge in xG (1.59 vs 1.16), and the model's 73% high-confidence call on Portsmouth or draw reflects how their survival stakes override Cardiff's title pursuit."