Portugal vUzbekistan
Over 2.5 Goals hits 82% at even odds because Portugal's 2.32 xG dwarfs Uzbekistan's 0.79, a 1.54-goal gap that favors high-volume attacking football at home.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Portugal average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Uzbekistan average 3.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Portugal vs Uzbekistan — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Portugal and Uzbekistan — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Portugal 72% · draw 20% · Uzbekistan 8%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.