FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 13 September 2026
PSV Eindhoven 4–1 Sparta RotterdamMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was PSV Eindhoven to win at 73%. Bawler had PSV Eindhoven at 73%, the draw at 16% and Sparta Rotterdam at 11%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
PSV Eindhoven win
73%
Result
Draw
16%
Sparta Rotterdam win
11%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.7 – 1.0
Total 3.7
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.8 – 2.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
PSV Eindhoven to win
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"PSV's home win stands at 73% forecast, powered by a dominant 1.70 xG advantage and De Jong's presence in a front line generating 2.69 expected goals."